ECON10005: Quantitative Methods 计量方法 assignment 代写
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ECON10005: Quantitative Methods 计量方法 assignment 代写
ECON10005: Quantitative Methods 1
Second Semester, 2017
First Assignment
Due by: 1 pm on Monday 4 September 2017
Students must read the following instructions carefully before working on the assignment.
Assignments of those who fail to follow the instructions will not be accepted.
• This assignment must be submitted online via LMS by 1 pm on the above due date.
Any assignments not submitted by the due date and time will be given a mark of zero.
This assignment is worth 7.5 per cent of the final grade for Quantitative Methods 1.
• A group of two, three or four students (but no more than four students) may work
together and submit one set of assignment answers for the group. All members of the
group, however, MUST be enrolled in the same tutorial. Individuals may work alone
if they wish and submit their own assignment answers, but I would urge students to
work in groups.
• Assignment submission has two stages: 1. Register your assignment group and 2.
Submit the assignment online via LMS.
Students must register their groups by going to the link that will be made available on
the LMS in week 5 (announcement will be sent out). Assignments of groups which are
not registered through this system will not be accepted. A separate link will be given to
submit your assignment, once the assignment group registration process is completed.
• For assignments submitted as a group, all valid group members will receive the same
mark for the assignment. Students that attempt to submit an assignment with a group
that is not in their own tutorial, or in a group with more than four members, will not
receive any credit for the assignment. Students will form their own groups.
• All the assignments should be typed and should be converted into PDF before
submitting online via LMS. Students must preview their assignment after uploading on
the LMS to see if they have uploaded the correct/complete assignment and the
formatting is in order as in their original document. Any version of the assignment
submitted after the deadline due to formatting issues or submitting an incomplete
version will not be accepted.
• Please make sure to include a cover page with student IDs and names of all the
members in the group.
The purpose of this assignment is to give you practice working with the underlying concepts of
quantitative methods, and to give you feedback on your understanding of these concepts.
A/Prof Liana Jacobi
Department of Economics
The University of Melbourne
2
Question 1
Background
Are young people more likely to do risky things? This is the perception that exists in many
societies. Young people are thought to be more “reckless” than older people, taking more
chances, and not thinking as much about the future. But does this view have any basis? What
is the evidence on the level of risk-taking by people of different ages?
Newspoll is a company that regularly surveys Australians on a range of issues, including their
views on various politicians and political matters. This company also asks Australians about a
number of issues unrelated to politics. A few years ago Newspoll surveyed 1200 Australians
over the age of 18 by telephone between 28 February and 2 March 2014. Individuals were
chosen for inclusion in the survey randomly using a list of all home telephone numbers in
Australia. These individuals were asked 12 questions regarding potential risky behaviour.
For this assignment, we will focus on 2 of the 12 questions asked in the survey, and their
relationship with age.
The first question you will investigate is as follows:
Would you say that you do the following thing every time, most times, sometimes, rarely or
never?
Exceed the speed limit while driving at some stage by more than 5 kilometres per hour.
The responses by age group are provided in the table below. The numbers are the total
responses in each age group, e.g. 7 people aged 18 to 24 stated that they speed every time
they drive.
18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+ TOTAL
Every time 7 10 18 9 3 47
Most times 5 9 25 15 4 58
Sometimes 39 58 159 130 87 473
Rarely 22 42 87 78 104 333
Never 31 24 68 52 114 289
TOTAL 104 143 357 284 312 1200
The second question of interest is as follows:
How often do you do the following thing? Would it be at least once a week, at least once a
month, a few times a year, once a year, less often or never?
Consume food or drinks that are past their "best before" or "use by" date.
The responses by age group are provided in the table below.
18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+ TOTAL
At least once a week 4 3 14 17 16 54
At least once a month 12 15 36 38 36 137
Few times a year 6 17 76 49 59 207
Once a year 8 7 22 12 20 69
Less often 12 12 29 26 30 109
Never 62 89 180 142 151 624
TOTAL 104 143 357 284 312 1200
ECON10005: Quantitative Methods 计量方法 assignment 代写
3
Complete the following tasks
a. Provide an appropriate graph and table to compare the varied responses to the first
question above on the likelihood of speeding by age group. Explain briefly why you
chose this particular graph type and table for this objective. Is there any evidence that
young people are more likely to speed? Explain your answer. Provide at least one
potential reason for your findings here.
b. Provide an appropriate graph and table to compare the varied responses to the second
question above regarding the likelihood of consuming food or drinks beyond their “use
by” date. Explain briefly why you chose this particular graph type and table for this
objective. Is there any evidence that young people are more likely to engage in such
risky behaviour regarding their health than older people? Explain your answer. Provide
at least one potential reason for your findings here.
c. Considering both questions investigated above, do you think that there are any potential
sources of bias? Write down and briefly explain all potential sources of bias in this
survey. Be specific about the underlying causes of bias for this particular survey and the
two specific questions investigated.
(12 marks)
Question 2
Background
There has been considerable interest in recent years on house prices in Australia. Some
commentators have suggested that recent house price increases have been excessive, and prices
are likely to fall considerably in the future. Most concern regards house prices in Sydney and
Melbourne, but concerns have also been raised about other cities in Australia.
Your task is to provide information to illustrate how house prices have moved over time in four
major cities in Australia: Brisbane, Canberra, Adelaide and Darwin
The file “Houseprices.xlsx” contains the median house prices for Brisbane, Canberra, Adelaide
and Darwin from March 2002 to March 2017. The data has been collected by the Australian
Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and is available on their website:
http://www.abs.gov.au/
House price information in the Excel file is based on the median data reported for “Established
House Transfers” from the following ABS release:
“Residential Property Price Indexes: Eight Capital Cities” – catalogue number 6416.0
The online release includes Excel tables of time series data for each capital city in Australia.
The data provided for this question has been sourced from “Tables 4 and 5. Median Price
(unstratified) and Number of Transfers (Capital City and Rest of State)” from the June 2017
issue.
4
Complete the following tasks
a. Provide numerical descriptive statistics in terms of measures of central location (mean,
median, mode) and measures of dispersion (standard deviation, variance, coefficient of
variation, range, min, max) for each data series, i.e. house prices in Brisbane, Canberra,
Adelaide and Darwin from March 2002 to March 2017. Based on those measures,
compare the location and variation in median house prices across in this period across
the four cities.
b. Generate a histogram for each house price series. Briefly describe their shapes.
To make your histograms comparable, ensure each histogram uses the same set of
intervals. You may wish to use an interval width of $50,000.
c. Construct and provide the following percentiles of the house prices in Darwin: the 25 th ,
50 th and 75 th percentiles. Provide a brief description in words of what these percentiles
tell us. Are these percentile measures consistent with the shape of the distribution
observed in your graph in part (b)? Explain briefly.
d. Provide one appropriate graph to illustrate and compare movements over time in median
house prices in Brisbane, Canberra, Adelaide and Darwin, from March 2002 to March
2017.
e. Briefly describe in words the relative levels and movements over time in the three
median house price series.
f. Based on your graph in (d), would you say that there is evidence of any relationship
between the Adelaide and Brisbane house price series? Next, provide an appropriate
measure of the strength and sign of the relationship between the two series. Describe
your measure in words, and describe what you find, focusing on the strength and sign of
any relationship.
Repeat this question, but this time compare prices in Darwin and Canberra.
(18 marks)
Question 3
a. The joint probability distribution of X and Y is shown in the following table.
(i) Determine the marginal probability distributions of X and Y.
(ii) Are X and Y independent? (Hint: 2 random variables are independent if p(x, y) = p(x)p(y)
for all pairs (x, y).)
(iii) Find P(Y = 2 | X = 1).
5
b. Historical data collected at the Commonwealth Bank in Sydney revealed that 80% of
all customers applying for a loan are accepted. Suppose that 50 new loan applications
are selected at random. Define a random variable X as the number of loans accepted
by the bank (number of successes).
(i) Compute the expected value and the standard deviation of the number of loans that will be
accepted by the bank.
(ii) What is the probability that at least 42 loans will be accepted? Use Excel to answer this
question.
(iii) What is the probability that the number of loans rejected is between 10 and 15, inclusive?
Use Excel to answer this question.
(iv) Use Excel to compute and then graph the probability distribution of X. Provide the graph.
(You do not need to provide a table for the probability distribution.)
(10 marks)
Your written answers for all questions should not exceed 2500 words (approximately 8-9
pages).
END OF ASSIGNMENT
ECON10005: Quantitative Methods 计量方法 assignment 代写
