代写 TRANSPORT ECONOMICS assignment
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代写 TRANSPORT ECONOMICS assignment
TRANSPORT ECONOMICS
Assignment 1: Demand forecasting
Instructions:
The assignment assesses your understanding of quantitative transport demand forecasting
techniques. Assignment 1 is worth 20 marks. This assignment is an individual
assignment. Thus, you need to finish the assignment independently.
The due date is the end of Week 5 (21 August 2016). Submission extensions are not
normally granted, except for other unexpected reasons. If you need an extension you
must apply electronically to the course coordinator via email before the submission due
date. In the application you should specify a date on which you plan to submit the
assignment. This date should be within one week from the posted submission date. Any
requests for extensions exceeding seven days must be submitted via RMIT’s special
consideration process. In the absence of a granted extension, late submissions will be
automatically penalized by 10% per working day up to a maximum of 10 working days.
Problem description:
The date set in the spread sheet below contains:
data about the annual quantity of total Victoria road freight during the period
fiscal year 1 to 30. This variable is the dependent variable, and is denoted as Y.
data for the same number of years on three other variables (X 1 , X 2 , X 3 ) that are
associated with the dependent variable, and are proposed to be relevant in
forecasting future values of the dependent variable. You are required to use the
Microsoft Excel package (the data analysis section) to finish the specific tasks
below.
代写 TRANSPORT ECONOMICS assignment
Year
Total road
freight (Y)
Average
annual
transport fuel
index (X1)
Estimated
total weekly
earnings
(X2)
Retail
turnover
(X3)
1 13,780 38.6 323 $13,154.4
2 14,540 40.7 344 $13,787.6
3 15,740 44.0 366 $15,430.2
4 15,900 48.7 387 $17,127.5
5 17,130 52.8 408 $18,438.9
6 18,400 54.2 431 $19,849.8
7 19,460 58.0 466 $21,064.7
8 19,040 62.1 488 $20,849.4
9 18,760 63.6 504 $21,727.5
10 19,850 65.3 511 $22,513.1
11 20,330 67.1 529 $23,144.8
12 21,970 68.9 552 $24,705.9
13 23,290 71.0 563 $28,285.0
14 24,220 71.9 572 $27,645.9
15 25,910 71.5 598 $29,146.4
16 27,290 70.0 602 $31,714.3
17 28,620 74.1 614 $34,417.1
18 29,210 78.9 637 $35,405.2
19 30,740 79.3 674 $39,305.4
20 32,270 81.2 723 $41,975.1
21 33,970 82.0 761 $45,744.2
22 35,190 84.8 790 $47,263.5
23 36,430 90.3 815 $48,574.4
24 37,650 91.6 837 $51,661.3
25 39,310 95.9 862 $54,538.7
26 38,570 95.0 886 $57,593.3
27 39,200 95.1 958 $59,996.5
28 40,200 97.0 961 $62,754.9
29 41,730 100.0 998 $64,156.1
30 42,590 102.0 1046 $64,388.3
a. Source: BITRE (2014) Road freight estimates update Information sheet
Table 2.3 Estimates of national road freight: Victoria (billion tkm) p. 6
b. Current value of GDP per year obtained from ABS Catalogue 5206.001
Key aggregates by summing in each fiscal year the four quarterly values at
3
current prices for GDP. Series type Trend; Data type DERIVED.
c. Source: ABS Catalogue 6401.03 CPI Index numbers by group by capital
city accessed November 26 2014. Base 2011-12 = 100.0
d. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Catalogue 6302.001 Average
Weekly Earnings
e. Source: Australian Burea of Statistics Time Series Workbook
6291.0.55.001 Labour Force, Australia, Detailed - Electronic Delivery Table
02. Labour force status by State, Capital city / Balance of state and Sex.
Figures in Table are average of monthly figures for each year.
f. Data from ABS Catalogue 8501.03.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, by State.
Annual totals obtained by adding monthly reported values.
g. Source: 1986, 1991, 1993, 1994 from ABS Household Estimates Australia
1986, 1991-1994 Cataogue #3229.0. 1994/5 to 2011/12 data from ABS
Catalogue 4130.0DO.003201112 Table 18 VIC Households Selected
Household Characteristics. Data for 2006 and 2011 number of Victorian
households from Profile ID taken from ABS Census of Population and
Housing: http://profile.id.com.au/australia/households?WebID=110 accessed
July 17 2014.
Required tasks:
Task 1: Input the data set into Excel. (2 marks)
Task 2: Present a scatter plot including all variables (dependent and independent
variables), and briefly comment on their trends (movement over time). (2 marks)
Task 3: Draw scatter plots between the dependent variable and each of the independent
variables and briefly comment on them. (4 marks)
Task 4: Run the linear regression function in Excel between the dependent variable and
each independent variable. Analyse and comment on the outputs based on the adjusted R 2
values and the coefficients. (4 marks)
4
Task 5: Run the following multivariate linear regression models:
Dependent variable Independent variables
Model 1 Y X1, X2
Model 2 Y X1, X3
Model 3 Y X2, X3
Model 4 Y X1, X2, X3
Report the outputs and give the estimated equations, conduct the analysis as in Task 4,
and then select the best forecasting equation from those generated in Tasks 4 and 5 based
on the adjusted R 2 values. (4 marks)
Task 6: Forecast the values of the dependent variable using the model chosen in Task 5
for Year 31 to 35 and briefly explain the results of these forecasts (the forecast
independent variables are given below; use the relevant values to forecast the Y values).
(4 marks)
Year Dependent variable Independent variables
Y X1 X2 X3
31 104.1 1095 $65,593.3
32 105.8 1124 $74,396.5
33 106.9 1183 $76,754.9
34 108.1 1203 $79,156.1
35 109.7 1245 $81,388.3
代写 TRANSPORT ECONOMICS assignment
