代写 Macroeconomics 2Assignment–Semester 2 2016

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Macroeconomics 2Assignment–Semester 2 2016
Macroeconomic Forecasting and Analysis
 
Due dates:
Part A: 11 August 2016 (7pm) e-submission via Blackboard
Part B: 23 September 2016 (7pm) e-submission via Blackboard
 
Weight:
This assignment makes up 25% of the total marks for the course.
 
General outline and Instructions:
In this assignment you will be asked to do two things. In Part A you need toforecast certain macroeconomic variables prior to their official release. In Part B you need todiscuss your forecasts, the significance of the data for the economy and develop an opinion and commentateabout certain economic issues. Please take note of the due dates for each part of the assignment.
 
 
1.     Part A: Macroeconomic Forecasting
 
Provide forecasts for the variables listed below by inserting a number in the grey boxes. In submitting Part A of the assignment you must submit the entire document to Blackboard. Note that Part A of the assignment will be marked in conjunction with Part B.
 

Data	Data source or where the data can be found	Release or forecast date	My Forecast	Actual released data
Real GDP (% change from a year earlier in 2016Q2 in the Chain Volume seasonally adjusted figure)	ABS (http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/5206.0)	7 Sep 2016	3.3%	3.3% [0.5%]
Unemployment rate (% of labour force, seasonally adjusted, August 2016)	ABS (http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/6202.0)	15 Sep 2016	5.8%	5.6%
ASX200 Share Index	(http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AS51:IND)	15 Sep 2016	5290	5240
Australian Dollar vs US Dollar (No. of USD to buy 1 AUD)	(http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AUDUSD:CUR)	15 Sep 2016	0.7605	0.7515

 

 
2.     Part B: Macroeconomic Analysis
 
Your task for Part B of the assignment is to write a commentary and discussion piece on the economy similar in nature to that which would be written by a macroeconomist from a major bank or consultancy. I would like you to outline your opinion on the state of the economy. Please complete your assignment by writing in the grey box provided below. Some instructions on how to go about completing Part B of the assignment are listed below. Please follow these instructions.
 
General advice:
·         Please have a look at the marking rubric below with regard to how the assignment will be assessed. The idea of the assignment is for you to outline your views regarding the state of the global and domestic economy and use economic reasoning to justify these views. The focus is primarily on the reasoning path you follow.
·         This is a written assignment. No diagrams, charts, graphs or pictures should be included. Marks will be deducted for their inclusion.
·         Note that the word limit for the assignment is 750 words. You are asked to include your word count at the end of the assignment.  This must be strictly adhered to. Marks will be deducted if you exceed the word limit. Part of the challenge of the assignment is to write clearly and succinctly in getting your point across.
·         As you can see from the marking rubric you will be marked on the quality of your referencing. Please refer to the RMIT referencing guide: http://www1.rmit.edu.au/library/referencing.
·         This is an individual assignment. It must be your own work. That means you can’t copy a friend’s work or get help from them, though discussing the issues with friends is an excellent idea. You also can’t copy from sources without referencing them. Plagiarism is a serious issue so please make sure you don’t run afoul of the rules. By submitting this assignment you make the declaration and statement of authorship outlined at the front of the assignment.
·         If assignments are late then marks will be deducted at 10% of the total possible mark per day. Of course, if you have encountered some trouble and have been unable to meet the deadline then please apply for Special Consideration. This webpage provides instructions about how to go about this: http://www1.rmit.edu.au/students/specialconsideration.
 
Specific advice:
In your commentary piece I would like you to address four specific issues in each of four sections. The topics of each section are discussed in below:
·         1. Recent data and developments: Discuss how your forecasts in Part A compared with the actual numbers. You may want to outline why there were errors, if any, in your forecasts. Outline the implications of the data for fiscal and monetary policy makers.
·         2. The global context:Outline what you think are some of the key recent global economic eventswhich have impacted, or are impacting,on the domestic economy. These could be events which occurred up to 5 years ago but are still influencing the domestic economy.
·         3. Risks to the economy:Here discuss the most significant risksthat the domestic economy faces. Outline one risk that would move aggregate demand (AD) to the left and one that would move aggregate supply (AS) to the left. Also, discuss your assessment of the probability of each event occurring.
·         4. Long-run outlook:Provide a forecast for Real GDP growth over the period 2016-2036 for the economy. Outline your reasons for such a forecast with regard to the long run growth drivers and the key factors which you think will influence growth in future. The table contains some historical data on the economy which might be useful in your discussion.

 
 

Recent data and developments             The global context             Risks to the economy             Long-run outlook           Table: Historical Growth Statistics for the Australian Economy Annual Average Growth Rate: 1980-1999 2001-2011 Real GDP 3.9% 3.2% Population 1.3% 1.5% Employment 1.8% 2.5% Human Capital 0.1% 0.2% Physical Capital 3.9% 3.7% Proportion:     Employment/Population 44.3% 49.7% Source: Penn World Tables 8.0 (Feenstra, Inklaar and Timmer, 2013)

Word Count (all words above this line including data in the table): ___ words (max 750)   References   Feenstra, Robert C., Robert Inklaar and Marcel P. Timmer (2013), "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table" available for download at:www.ggdc.net/pwt.

 
3.     Marking Rubric
 
The rubric below provides a basis for grading your responses to the questions in Part B. Note marks will be deducted for answers that exceed the word limit.
 

Marks	0	1	2	3	4	5
Section 1	Poor forecasts and explanation. No policy insight.	Poor forecasts and explanation. Some policy insight.	Reasonable forecasts and limited explanation. Some policy insight.	Reasonable forecasts and explanation. Some policy insight.	Reasonable forecasts and good explanation. Some useful policy insight.	Reasonable forecasts and excellent explanation. Some keen policy insight.
Section 2	Poor discussion of the global economic context. Limited understanding of impact on the economy.	Limited discussion of the global economic context. Limited understanding of impact on the domestic economy.	Plausible discussion of the global economic context. Limited understanding of impact on the domestic economy.	Good discussion of the global economic context. Limited understanding of impact on the domestic economy.	Good discussion of the global economic context. Reasonable understanding of impact on the domestic economy.	Comprehensive discussion of the global economic context. Excellent understanding of impact on the domestic economy.
Section3	Neither shocks are plausible.	One shockis  somewhat plausible. Limited discussion. No probabilities.	One shock is plausible the other not. Limited discussion. No probabilities.	Both shocks are plausible. Reasonable discussion. No probabilities.	Plausible shocks. Good discussion. Some probabilities.	Excellent choice of shocks. Good discussion with insight. Probabilities plausible.
Section 4	Implausible and poorly considered analysis.	Poor analysis. Badly argued projections.	Some reasonable analysis and projections.	Good analysis. Plausible projections.	Good analysis. Well-argued projections.	Excellent discussion and analysis.Well-argued projections.
Follows Instructions	Mostly does not follow instructions (word limit, diagrams, submission requirements).	Mostly follows instructions.	Follows all instructions.
Referencing	Poor or no referencing.	Needs some improvement.	Mostly correct.	Entirely correct.

 
 代写 Macroeconomics 2Assignment–Semester 2 2016

 
4.     Appendix: Useful Sources of Information
 
·         Data sources and major institutions:
 

1. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is the major source of economic data in Australia. This can be accessed via their website: www.abs.gov.au. The release calendar of economic data is here: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/webpages/ABS+Release+Calendar.
2. The Singaporean statistics department releases much of the state’s key national data. These statistics can be accessed via the website: www.singstat.gov.sg/.The release calendar of economic data is here: http://www.singstat.gov.sg/statistics/advance-release-calendar.
3. There are a number of international agencies which collect data from various countries and present it in a coherent format. In particular, the IMF, World Bank and OECD sites will be very useful, especially because they also produce forecasts:

·         IMF: data from the Oct 2015 IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) is available here: www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/02/index.htm.There is an audio-visual presentation which is quite interesting. The WEO itself may also be very useful as it provides discussion and forecasts for most of the countries around the world. The WEO is produced every 6 months so make sure you are looking at the latest one.
·         The World Bank: the World Bank produces a Global Economic Prospects document (www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects). This contains forecasts and discussion of the prospects for a number of mainly developing countries. This is also produced every 6 months.
·         OECD: the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) is a group of mainly rich countries. They have a secretariat which puts together macroeconomic projections in their Economic Outlook every 6 months (www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economicoutlook.htm). They record the presentation which is usually quite interesting.
·         The ADB: the Asian Development Bank is another international agency which does a lot of work in the macroeconomic area. There some useful resources on the website (http://www.adb.org/) such as country-specific pages and also detailed economic data (http://www.adb.org/publications/key-indicators-asia-and-pacific-2015).
 
·         Sources of commentary and analysis:
 

4. One of the best ways to stay informed of economic events is to watch the TV news and read the newspaper. I would particularly recommend watching Alan Kohler who is a very good business commentator that appears on the ABC News each night around 7.20pm. His nightly report is also available here: www.abc.net.au/news/business/kohler-report/.
5. The website: www.dismal.comis useful as it provides a release calendar of economic indicators (www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/calendar/monthly). The website covers all the major economic data releases around the world though much of their material is for paying subscribers. However, it is possible to see a few sentences about some recently covered statistics (e.g. www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/aus_cpi/Australia-Consumer-Price-Index).
6. Bloomberg runs a TV station and has a sophisticated data provision service also has a very good website with a lot of commentary on economic issues. There is an Asian page (www.bloomberg.com/asia) and one for the Americas and Europe too (see the drop down menu in the top right hand corner). I particularly enjoy reading this fellow: www.bloombergview.com/contributors/william-pesek.
7. Almost all the various newspapers in Australia and elsewhere in the world have economic commentators and lots of interesting macroeconomic discussion. Many of the commentators are excellent. I’ve included a list below. Each of these writers tend to focus on their home country and the issues of the day:

·         Paul Krugman in the New York Times:www.krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/
·         Peter Martinin The Age (Melbourne, Australia): www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/by/Peter-Martin
·         Ross Gittins in the Sydney Morning Herald (Sydney, Australia):www.smh.com.au/business/by/Ross-Gittins
·         SCMP: the South China Morning Post has a pretty comprehensive business section which can be viewed at: www.scmp.com/business/global-economy
·         The Straits Times: the economy section of The Straits Times can be viewed here: www.straitstimes.com/business/economy

8. There are many excellent economic-focused blogs around which provide useful information:

·         Macrobusiness: This is an excellent website which has a lot of very interesting material about the Australian and global economy. It is undated daily and the discussion is usually highly relevant to macroeconomic forecasting and thinking about economic risks. However, some of the blogs are only for paying subscribers. The website is here: http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/.
·         Major US blogs: There are a large number of excellent economics bloggers in the US. A comprehensive list (with some discussion of the flavour of the blog) can be found here: www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-18/econ-bloggers-take-to-internet-to-hash-out-big-ideas-of-our-age. Some of the particularly influential ones are listed below. But note these do often have a US focus:

1. www.economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/
2. www.marginalrevolution.com/
3. www.bradford-delong.com/

 代写 Macroeconomics 2Assignment–Semester 2 2016