BUSS 5292 Topic 3 Sources of Risk 代写

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    Risk Management
    BUSS 5292
    Topic 3
    Sources of Risk:
    From nature to nurture
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    Course Facilitator: Kesten Green
    Study Period 1, 2016
    Risk is all around us…
    q Natural physical environment (“act of God”)
    (e.g. toxins, meteorological, geophysical)
    q Natural living environment (fauna & flora)
    (e.g. toxins, allergens, diseases, wildlife, tree fall, wildfire)
    q Manmade physical environment
    (e.g. by-products, flaws, failures (leakages & collapses))
    q Own genetics and actions
    (e.g. disease, mistakes, mishaps, misadventure)
    q Social environment
    (e.g. mistakes, mishaps, misadventure, misinterpretation,
    misrepresentation, negligence, malpractice, fraud,
    malinvestment, malfeasance, maladministration, corruption,
    crime, terrorism, war)
    2
    So what’s to worry about?
    q Long-standing well-known easily-
    quantified* risks
    (e.g. from natural world, own actions, and social
    environment)
    q Speculative harder-to-quantify risks
    (e.g. from human productive activities, and from
    government statements and actions)
    *Data are available on frequencies of occurance and
    size of impact.
    3
    2
    How to quantify risk
    q Identify relevant data sources*
    q Relative frequency, e.g.
    q “Causes of death, 2013”
    q “...falling trees..”
    q victimisation rates
    q bankruptcies
    q business failures
    q share market prices
    q Impact, e.g.
    q lives lost
    q dollar values
    q Calculate probabilities and expected values
    *See example resources under Topic 3.
    4
    What about harder-to-quantify risk?
    q Look to objective studies*
    q Experiments
    q Replications
    q Meta analyses
    q Look to analogous data*
    q Similar situations that occurred in the past
    *See the following example resources under Topic 3
    that are objective studies that also provide analogous
    data: “But is it true?”; “Hyping health risks”; “Bad
    environmental and resources scares”; “Extraordinary
    popular delusions”
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    Examples of speculative health risks*
    q Evironmental causes of breast cancer
    q Electromagnetic fields
    q Residential radon
    q Passive smoking
    *See Kabat (2008)
    6  BUSS 5292 Topic 3 Sources of Risk 代写
    3
    Examples of environmental scares*
    q DDT
    q Acid rain
    q Agent orange
    q Love Canal
    q Mercury in fish
    q Asbestos
    q Etc...
    *See Simon; Wildavsky
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    Examples of resource scares*
    q e.g. Peak oil
    q Timber famine
    q Copper crises
    *See Simon (1998)
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    US Shale Resources
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    Source: Federation of American Scientists
    4  BUSS 5292 Topic 3 Sources of Risk 代写
    Examples of risky grand schemes*
    q Tulip mania
    q The Mississippi company
    q South Sea bubble
    q etc.
    *Mackay (1852)
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    Examples of travel risk (mis?)calculation*
    q Travel deaths after September 11, 2001
    q Fear of “dread risk” leads to more deaths
    q Estimated extra deaths on road: 1,500
    *See Gigerenzer (2006); chart on p. 349
    11
    Risky investments and “beating the market”*
    q Do stock pickers outperform the
    sharemarket average?
    q No.
    q So how do you manage risk as an investor?
    q Buy a broad index fund with low fees.
    *See interview with Burton Malkiel, author of
    “A random walk down Wall Street”
    12
    5
    What are business leaders worried about, now?
    13
    CEO responses to
    PwC on what they
    consider the top
    threats to business
    growth. Photograph:
    PwC
      
    BUSS 5292 Topic 3 Sources of Risk 代写